The Best Time to Negotiate: When You Don't Need To

me@jamesrobb.ca (James Robb) — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The 29th of August is approaching and more and more blogs and opinion pieces I see are discussing the case for and against Iceland having accession talks with the EU. Reading some of the pieces written by friends and former colleagues stirred me up enough to want to discuss the issue myself.

I am voting yes. This isn’t a comprehensive case for yes - I would be speaking well outside of what I’m comfortably prepared to assert to do that, and it would take more than any one person is willing to read in a single sitting. The long-term security and prosperity of Iceland (and the world) are something I think a lot about, and at the moment the future is quite unclear for a number of concerning reasons.

The future does not look reliably like the past
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In a recent blog post on the subject I saw someone assert “the future looks like the past and the extreme event is a footnote”. I suppose that’s true depending on what time scale you want to look at and how hard you’re prepared to squint, but in general I just don’t think this is true.

In the year 1900 Iceland lived under the Danish crown. Fifty years later it was an independent state. Another fifty years forward and this thing called the EU existed with fifteen member states (and Iceland had joined the EEA). These seem like pretty big changes to me.

I live and work in Iceland now, but I grew up in Canada. The prosperous and long-standing economic, political, and cultural ties with the US were a fact. I certainly thought it would be like that forever. In the last year and a half, though, we watched that all fall apart pretty quickly. The US has imposed something like ten rounds of tariffs on Canada, repeatedly undermined its leadership, and suggested annexation. I hope this reverses course, but even if everyone learned how to behave tomorrow, it’d take a generation or so before it’d be a wise idea to trust things can go back to the way they were.

Big shifts can and do happen regularly. Long periods with no big changes aren’t the norm.

The standing world order is wobbling
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The political and economic structure we’ve lived in since the Second World War is showing signs of buckling. The future of NATO is a real question with its biggest member actively having suggested it’d be a good idea for it to annex two of the other members. Global trade has been turned upside down by tariff wars justified by stupid reasons that don’t stand up to basic scrutiny. The developing world is, well, developing, and it is beginning to assert its needs and wants on the global stage.

I would like to think all of those things can be fixed or worked with in some way, but as a society of 400,000 people, we are in many ways just along for the ride. Which brings me to my next point.

Iceland is tiny
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Despite its size, Iceland punches well above its weight and the country has done remarkably well for itself. From about 1870 to 1914, something like one fifth of the population left to seek greener pastures elsewhere, and now its denizens have among the best quality of life on the planet. It’s a high-functioning society full of creative and industrious people.

I think we have an enormous amount to offer the EU. I’m also not delusional about the numbers. We are very small, and will likely always be very small when considered against the EU as a whole. I don’t think many like to say it out loud, but we need the outside world much more than the outside world needs us. Much, much more.

Iceland is in a fantastic position at the moment to have a calm, unhurried conversation about membership terms with our biggest diplomatic, economic, and cultural partner. We are not desperate at the moment, far from it. When exactly would be a better time to have such a set of future-altering but non-binding talks?

The worst time to have a negotiation is when you’re desperate and badly need what the other party has. Let’s talk now.

Another fifty years
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Nobody can say with any real precision what Iceland will look like in fifty years, irrespective of whether or not it joins the EU. What I do know, though, is that the winds of change are blowing as they always have - trade, national security, and the general shape of our society will change. In a world like that, I believe there is strength in numbers.

I’ve never known any Romans, but my guess is that up until their empire started to fall apart, most of them believed such a thing was simply impossible. The world as they knew it seemed largely permanent and unlikely to become the technologically advanced global community it is today.

We do not know what the future looks like, but we have a chance to leisurely discuss one version of it. I’m voting yes, because it’s a practical and pragmatic way to explore the options Iceland has for its long-term security and prosperity.

European Union on James Robb

The Best Time to Negotiate: When You Don't Need To

The future does not look reliably like the past #

The standing world order is wobbling #

Iceland is tiny #

Another fifty years #

The future does not look reliably like the past
#

The standing world order is wobbling
#

Iceland is tiny
#

Another fifty years
#